2025 was supposed to be crypto's big year. The halving. The 4-year cycle. The prophecies.

Turns out the prophecies were all false.

But here's the thing—while most investors were feeling sorry for themselves, something much bigger is happening behind the scenes.  More on that in a moment...

The Death of the 4-Year Cycle 💀

The old playbook doesn't work anymore because the game has changed.

For years, crypto investors (myself included) have treated Bitcoin's halving cycle like gospel. Four years up, four years down, repeat until lambo.

2025 was supposed to be our year. Instead, it was the year we learned that treating markets like a religious ceremony is a terrible investment strategy.

Here's what actually happened: Whilst crypto markets were busy not doing what they were "supposed" to do, the real world got on with building the future. The U.S. passed actual crypto legislation. Stablecoins grew from $206B to $310B. A strategic Bitcoin reserve was established. The SEC stopped actively trying to murder the industry.

All good news, right? So why didn't prices explode?

Because—and this is the uncomfortable bit—maybe crypto's fundamental value proposition hasn't caught up to its fundamental valuation. Maybe the smart money went elsewhere. Maybe institutions move slower than impatient retail investors screaming "wen moon" on Twitter.

The practical takeaway: Stop waiting for history to repeat itself. It won't. Markets evolve. Your strategy should too.

Welcome to The Exponential Age 🚀

We're not in a crypto cycle. We're in a civilizational upgrade.

Think about what's happening right now—and I mean right now, not in some sci-fi future:

• The global financial system is moving on chain
• AI is replacing entire categories of human labor
• Autonomous vehicles are about to make human drivers obsolete
• Your phone is becoming an AI companion that can actually do things
• Energy production is moving to space (yes, really)
• Gene editing could add decades to your lifespan

Each one of these would be world-changing on its own. We've got six happening simultaneously, all feeding into and accelerating each other.

When the iPhone launched in 2007, global phone shipments roughly doubled over three years. We're about to see the same thing happen with electric cars, except cars cost considerably more than phones.

The uncomfortable question: If your entire portfolio is in crypto, what happens when AI stocks go parabolic and you're sitting there watching?

I'm not saying abandon crypto. I'm saying crypto is one technological revolution among several, and they won't all peak at the same time.

The Hardware Revolution (Or: Why 2026 Will Look Different)

Software innovations create apps. Hardware innovations reshape civilisation.

For the last 20 years, we've been living through the software revolution. Instagram, Netflix, Uber, ChatGPT—brilliant innovations that attract billions of users but don't fundamentally change the physical world.

That's about to change.

By the end of 2026, most companies will be forced to upgrade their workers' phones and laptops just to run the AI tools that will become standard. Not optional. Standard.

Think about it: If Siri becomes actually useful (imagine ChatGPT that can execute tasks via voice—"order me an Uber," "buy groceries for that cheesecake recipe"), anyone with older hardware simply can't participate. They'll be like the person trying to run iOS 18 on an iPhone 4.

The same goes for cars. When Tesla solves fully self-driving vehicles (and I think they already have—it's just regulation catching up), who's going to buy a car they still have to drive themselves? Especially when that car could be earning money for you as a robo-taxi while you sleep?

Three things to look out for in 2026:

1. A global AI-driven device upgrade cycle begins
2. Transportation starts its shift to autonomous vehicles
3. Corporate robotics (the boring kind—robot arms making coffee, not humanoid servants) reach an inflection point

These aren't guesses or predictions. The technology exists. The regulatory environment is being cleared. The question isn't if, it's when—and the answer appears to be "very soon."

How to Actually Position Your Portfolio (Without Being Stupid About It)

Diversification isn't cowardice. It's mathematics.

Look, I love crypto. I've spent years in this space. But 2025 taught me that having 100% of my portfolio in crypto—even with the best fundamentals—means accepting that external factors can wreck your year regardless of how right you are about the technology.

Here's how I'm thinking about it now:

Crypto is still the fastest horse. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana could still do 2-3x in a good year. Certain small caps could do 5-10x (though picking them is hard). But AI and robotics majors might "only" do 25-35% in a good year, and their small caps might "only" do 2-5x.

Conclusion: The Narrow Window

Here's the slightly uncomfortable truth: We have maybe 3-5 years to position ourselves for what's coming.

Once these technologies hit escape velocity—once AI and robotics reach full automation, once the onchain financial system absorbs traditional finance, once autonomous vehicles reshape transportation—it's genuinely unclear how traditional markets will function or how most people will generate income.

This isn't doom-mongering. It's just physics. When productivity increases by orders of magnitude through automation, the old rules stop working.

The next few years are make-or-break for building a real, lasting capital base. The kind that gives you options no matter what happens next.

Crypto is a massive part of this transformation. But it's not the only part. And investors who understand that—who can hold great crypto assets whilst also capturing the AI and robotics revolutions—are going to do considerably better than those who keep waiting for the 4-year cycle to save them.

The exponential age is here. The question is: Are you positioning yourself to capitalize on it, or are you still fighting the last war?