I was making tea this morning — proper tea, not that nonsense where you microwave a mug of water — when my phone lit up like a Christmas tree. Supreme Court ruling. Tariff chaos. Middle East tensions. Markets wobbling.

And somewhere between the kettle clicking off and the milk going in, a thought hit me: what if none of this is accidental?

Look, I've been around long enough to know that when politicians start breaking things, they usually have a toolbox hidden behind their back. And right now, Washington looks like a bull in a china shop... that secretly owns a pottery repair business.

Let me explain what's really going on — and what it means for your money.

🔥 Washington Wants a Crisis (Yes, Really)

The Trump administration needs the economy humming before midterms kick off later this year. Problem is, the Fed won't cut rates and Congress can't agree on a spending bill long enough to keep the government's lights on.

So what do you do when you need stimulus but can't get it through normal channels? You manufacture a reason. Bloomberg economist Anna Wong found that to actually swing a midterm election, economic growth needs to pick up several quarters beforehand. That means stimulus has to start flowing by April — which is basically next Tuesday in political time.

A crisis in the Middle East, a tech stock wobble, even the AI trade losing steam — any of these could give the administration the excuse it needs to turn on the money taps. It's not a conspiracy theory. It's just maths. And a calendar.

So what does this mean for you? Expect turbulence first, then relief. The playbook is: break things, scare the Fed into printing, ride the wave before November.

📉 The DAT Trap Is Springing Shut

Companies that loaded up on Bitcoin as a treasury strategy are starting to sweat — and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) just made it worse.

On a recent earnings call, their CEO casually mentioned that Bitcoin falling to $8,000 would trigger debt problems. Now, BTC is nowhere near that level. But here's the thing about fear: it doesn't need to be rational to be effective. Just mentioning that number sent investors running for the exits. It's like telling someone their parachute is "probably fine." Technically reassuring. Practically terrifying.

The wider concern? As crypto winter deepens, these digital asset treasuries are sitting on shrinking collateral against very real debt. If Bitcoin slides further, the dominoes start getting uncomfortably close together.

📊 Base Breaks Up With Optimism (And Both Win)

In the "actually good news" department, Coinbase's Layer 2 network Base just walked away from its relationship with the Optimism Superchain. Think of it as a corporate divorce where, somehow, both parties end up better off.

Here's the short version:

• Base was paying Optimism a 2.5% revenue cut — and contributing up to 97% of Superchain monthly revenues
• Base announced it's building its own tech stack, ditching the OP architecture entirely
• Optimism's OP token dropped 23-26%, hitting an all-time low around $0.14
• But Optimism quickly pivoted, announcing enterprise services, token buybacks, and onboarding ether.fi (with its tens of thousands of active crypto cards) as a replacement

Base gets more control, faster upgrades, and a fatter bottom line. Optimism gets a wake-up call that might save it long-term. Sometimes the best thing for a relationship is ending it.

"The economy is not in good shape, and without stimulus, it will slip into recession. The good news? Washington will do anything to stop that from happening."

WRAPPING UP

Here's where we stand. The markets are a pressure cooker with the valve sealed shut. Washington needs growth but can't get it through the front door, so don't be surprised when they try the window. Crypto has already priced in much of the pain — it's been the canary in the coal mine while equities pretended everything was lovely.

Think of the next few weeks as that bit in a British weather forecast where they say "unsettled, with brighter spells later." The unsettled part is coming. But so are the brighter spells — likely powered by the stimulus machine that Washington is desperately trying to justify turning on.