Vitalik's selling ETH (but it's not what you think)

There I was, stood in the queue at Tesco, when my phone buzzed. A mate had sent me a screenshot: “Vitalik’s dumping ETH.” My first thought wasn’t panic—it was annoyance that I’d have to explain this one at dinner. Again.

Because here’s the thing about crypto headlines: they’re designed to make you feel something immediately, usually dread. Vitalik selling Ethereum? Sounds like the end times. Except it isn’t. It rarely is. But that won’t stop Twitter from melting down like a cheap kettle.

Meanwhile, the weather’s getting warmer (allegedly—this is Britain, after all), which historically means crypto markets might warm up too. March in mid-term election years has a decent track record of being green. Whether that holds up this time is anyone’s guess, but there are some interesting signs worth watching.

Let’s sort through what’s actually happening, shall we?

Why Vitalik’s Selling (And Why It’s Fine) 📉

Crypto founders selling tokens isn’t news—but when Vitalik does it, people notice.

Vitalik Buterin isn’t your average founder. He doesn’t spend his days on Twitter promoting questionable NFT drops or appearing in Dubai wearing a suit that costs more than my car. He wears cat T-shirts and thinks deeply about things like quadratic funding. So when he sells ETH, it feels different.

But here’s what most headlines won’t tell you: he’s been doing this for years. He sells ETH to fund Ethereum development, charitable projects, and research. It’s not a vote of no confidence—it’s how he pays for things. Rather like selling shares in your own company to fund the company. Completely normal, just less dramatic than “FOUNDER DUMPS TOKENS.”

Does this mean everything’s rosy for Ethereum? Not exactly. The network’s facing challenges: Layer 2 solutions are siphoning off activity, gas fees are still occasionally absurd, and newer blockchains keep claiming they’re faster and better. It’s competitive out there, rather like trying to run a pub when three new ones open down the street.

But Vitalik selling some ETH to fund projects? That’s not the crisis people want it to be. Sorry to disappoint.

March Madness: When Altcoins Wake Up ☘️

History suggests March could be green for crypto—but April might take it all back.

There’s this pattern called seasonality. Basically, certain months tend to be good or bad for markets based on historical data. March in mid-term election years has historically been decent for crypto. Not amazing, not life-changing, just... decent. Think of it as crypto’s equivalent of a mild British spring—pleasant while it lasts, over before you know it.

What’s interesting right now isn’t Bitcoin (which has barely moved). It’s the smaller altcoins that nobody’s been paying attention to. Over a dozen of them rallied double digits last week. Meanwhile, BTC, ETH, and SOL just sat there looking bored.

Why the altcoin action? Two reasons:

1. Short squeezes. Many smaller altcoins have been falling for months, sometimes years. Traders have been shorting them relentlessly. When prices tick up even slightly, those shorts get liquidated, forcing traders to buy back in. That pushes prices higher, liquidating more shorts, creating a cascade. It’s rather satisfying to watch, if you’re not on the wrong side of it.
2. Tokenomics changes. Projects like Aptos and Polkadot are tweaking their token supply mechanisms. The market gets excited, bets on the changes working, and prices move. Whether these changes actually solve anything is debatable—most of these coins don’t have a supply problem, they have a demand problem. But markets don’t always care about logic.

Here’s the catch: these rallies probably won’t last. Once the short squeezes play out and reality sets in, prices will likely drift back down. It’s the crypto equivalent of a sugar rush—fun while it lasts, followed by an inevitable crash.

What Could Trigger a Rally? 💸

Tax refunds, economic data, and geopolitical calm (if we’re lucky) could combine to push prices higher.

There are a few potential catalysts for a March rally. None guaranteed, all plausible.

First, there’s the ISM manufacturing and services data coming next week. These are surveys that measure economic activity. Historically, when ISM numbers go up, crypto prices tend to follow. Whether that’s correlation or causation is debatable, but the relationship has held for years.

Second, tax refunds are hitting bank accounts this month. Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” from last year means many Americans are getting larger refunds than usual. Some of that money will get spent. Some will get invested. And some—possibly—will find its way into crypto.

Of course, consumer sentiment has been falling for months. People are worried about jobs, inflation, and whether they’ll still have a job next quarter. So many might save their refunds rather than invest them. But even a fraction flowing into markets could provide a boost.

The wildcard? Geopolitics. The escalation between the US and Iran over the weekend threw cold water on any rally hopes. If tensions continue or escalate into a regional conflict, forget March being green. Markets hate uncertainty, and war is about as uncertain as it gets.

On the flip side, some analysts reckon a prolonged conflict could actually bring forward the bear market bottom. Silver linings and all that.

Insider Trading: Still a Problem 🚨

Three major insider trading stories broke this week—and they’re all depressingly familiar.

Let’s start with Axiom, a Solana-based trading platform. An investigation by onchain detective ZachXBT revealed that employees were using internal tools to spy on users’ wallets and trade on that information. They could look up anyone by wallet address, see their entire trading history, and front-run their moves.

The main culprit appears to be Broox Bauer, a senior business development employee. He allegedly shared this privileged access with a small group of mates, who then made coordinated trades based on what influencers and big accounts were buying. It’s the trading equivalent of marking your exam after seeing someone else’s answers.



Axiom claims to be “shocked and disappointed,” which is corporate speak for “we didn’t know, or at least we’re saying we didn’t know.” To their credit, they’ve removed access to these tools and promised to investigate. But the fact that junior employees had this level of access in the first place is... questionable.

Here’s where it gets properly absurd: someone created a Polymarket prediction market betting on which company ZachXBT would expose. That market did $30 million in volume. And just hours before the report published, two wallets bet heavily on Axiom when odds were below 14%. They walked away with six-figure profits.

People were insider trading on a bet about insider trading. You couldn’t make this up if you tried.

The second story involves Kalshi, a prediction marketplace, taking its first public enforcement actions. They banned Artem Kaptur, an editor for MrBeast’s show, for betting on markets related to upcoming MrBeast videos—content he obviously had inside knowledge of. They also banned Kyle Langford, a California gubernatorial candidate, for betting on his own race. Both seem fairly obvious violations, yet both happened.

The third story is the biggest: Jane Street, a massive Wall Street trading firm, has been accused of front-running trades during the Terra/LUNA collapse in 2022. A lawsuit claims they used insider information to unwind hundreds of millions in exposure just minutes after Terraform withdrew $150 million from a liquidity pool. That withdrawal helped trigger the panic that brought down the entire Terra ecosystem.

Jane Street denies everything, naturally. But the lawsuit highlights that even traditional finance giants aren’t above dodgy behaviour when crypto’s involved.

What Happens Next

So here we are. March might be green based on historical patterns, tax refunds, and economic data. Or it might not, if geopolitical tensions worsen or if the rallies we’re seeing are just short squeezes with no staying power.

Vitalik’s selling some ETH, but that’s normal. Insider trading is still rampant, but at least some platforms are starting to crack down. Altcoins are moving, but probably not for reasons that will last.

It’s rather like British weather forecasting—we can make educated guesses based on historical patterns, but we won’t really know until it happens. The smart move is to watch the data, manage your risk, and remember that markets rarely move in straight lines.

The one thing I’m fairly confident about? Whatever happens, there will be more headlines designed to make you panic. Try not to fall for them.