Last Thursday evening, with a cup of tea going cold on my desk, I was staring at three browser tabs open simultaneously: Trump's Greenland tariff announcement, the Russell 2000 hitting an all-time high, and something about credit card interest rates that nobody seemed particularly bothered about.

Classic week in the markets, really.

My initial thought was rather uncharitable: "Brilliant. Just when I thought I understood what was moving prices." But here's the thing—this chaotic soup of news actually tells us quite a lot about where we're headed. The question is whether anyone's paying proper attention.

Let me walk you through what actually matters this week.

The Tariff Theatre Returns 🎭

Here's the headline: Trump announced 10% tariffs on EU countries that oppose the Greenland situation, starting February 1st, escalating to 25% by June.

Think of tariff announcements as the financial equivalent of your nan threatening to leave the Sunday roast early because someone made a political comment. Everyone gasps, there's a brief panic, and then normal service resumes five minutes later.

The market typically responds with what traders call a "knee-jerk reaction"—prices drop immediately, everyone clutches their pearls, and then we all remember this has happened before. Within days (sometimes hours), things bounce back.

But here's where it gets interesting: The Supreme Court is handing down decisions today, and one of those cases involves the legality of Trump's tariffs. They don't tell us in advance which decisions they'll announce, so this could land on the market like a piano from a third-story window.

Three possible scenarios:

• Scenario One: Market drops this morning on tariff news, creates buying opportunity for cash-secured puts, recovers within days (most likely)
• Scenario Two: Market has wizened up to this pattern and barely flinches (possible)
• Scenario Three: Tariffs actually stick this time, pullback becomes prolonged (least likely, but not impossible)

So what's the play here? If you're selling puts, a morning dip might be your friend. Just remember—past performance and all that.

2 Stories Nobody's Talking About (But Should Be) 📰

While everyone's obsessing over tariffs, two genuinely significant developments are unfolding quietly in the background.

First: Venezuela might be opening its doors to U.S. investment.

The Venezuelan government could modify its laws this week to allow greater American investment, particularly in oil infrastructure. For context, Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves—bigger than Saudi Arabia's. If this happens, entire market sectors could shift overnight.

It's rather like discovering your difficult neighbor suddenly wants to sell you their vintage car collection at mate's rates. Unexpected, potentially lucrative, and definitely worth watching.

Second: Trump's credit card interest rate cap deadline is this week.

Remember when the President announced credit card companies should cap their rates at 10%? No? Exactly. It's been remarkably quiet since that initial announcement, which probably tells you everything you need to know.

Still, if enforcement actually happens (big if), the finance sector could see significant movement. The current average credit card rate hovers around 21%—cutting that in half would be rather dramatic for card issuers' bottom lines.

Will anything materialize? Your guess is as good as mine. But it's worth keeping one eye on, just in case.

Small Caps Are Having Their Moment 📈

The Russell 2000 hit an all-time high last week while tech stocks took a beating.

This sector rotation is textbook behavior when investors get fidgety about valuations. Large-cap tech has been the darling of the markets for ages—everyone piling into the same comfortable names. But when those stocks start looking expensive and rate cuts seem increasingly likely, money flows toward smaller companies with more growth potential.

Think of it like this: You can buy a renovated three-bedroom house in Chelsea for £2 million, or you can buy a fixer-upper in Peckham for £400,000 with genuine upside. Both strategies work, depending on your risk tolerance and timing.

Here's what the numbers tell us:

• Small-cap stocks historically outperform when the Fed cuts rates
• They're more volatile (obviously)
• They offer legitimate growth opportunities that mega-caps can't match anymore
• The risk is higher—these companies are smaller for a reason

The interesting bit? This rotation often signals that institutional investors are positioning for something. Whether that's rate cuts, economic acceleration, or simply a rebalancing act remains to be seen.

Are you adjusting your portfolio for this shift? Because the data suggests this isn't just a one-week blip.

What This All Means for Your Week

So here we are—tariffs threatening but probably not sticking, Venezuela potentially opening up, credit card rates maybe getting capped, and small stocks partying like it's 1999.

It's a bit like trying to navigate a British road roundabout while three different sat navs shout contradictory directions at you. Confusing, yes. But also rather predictable in its unpredictability.

My take: This week, world events will move markets more than any economic data. The Supreme Court decision on tariffs could be the biggest catalyst (if it comes). The Venezuela situation deserves more attention than it's getting. And the small-cap rotation suggests institutional money is repositioning for something.

Keep your wits about you. Don't chase momentum. And for heaven's sake, don't make any rash decisions based on tariff headlines until we see what actually materializes.