Rektember lives up to its name 💀

There's a peculiar tradition in crypto where everyone pretends September might be different this year.

Spoiler: It never is.

Last week, I watched $1 billion in long positions get liquidated three separate times. That's the kind of week where you check your portfolio once, wince, then spend the rest of the week pretending your phone doesn't exist.

But here's the thing – this wasn't your garden-variety market crash. Something odd happened. While crypto was face-planting, stocks and gold were doing just fine, thank you very much. Which means the carnage was crypto-specific, not some grand macro apocalypse.

So what actually happened? And more importantly, can we limp into "Uptober" without losing our shirts?

Let's dig in.

🎯 The Mystery Crash Nobody Can Explain

The first wave of liquidations had no clear catalyst – which is exactly what makes it suspicious.

Picture this: Late Sunday night, when crypto liquidity is thinner than airport coffee, someone (or something) triggered over $1 billion in liquidations. No news. No economic data. No obvious reason.

Macro analyst Andreas Steno-Larsen pointed out the timing was remarkably convenient – right when the fewest people are watching and it's easiest to move markets with less capital. The conspiracy theorists are having a field day, and honestly? They might have a point.

The second wave at least made sense – stronger-than-expected economic data spooked markets. But that first one? Still unexplained.

Here's what to watch this week:

• Friday's unemployment data – Lower numbers = bearish (Fed keeps rates high). Higher numbers = bullish (Fed cuts rates)
• Wednesday's potential government shutdown – Trump's reportedly preparing layoff notices for federal agencies
• The DXY (US Dollar Index) – When dollar goes up, crypto typically goes down. It's the rule nobody likes but everyone obeys

One analyst compared this period to October 2017, when the DXY spiked and turned what should've been "Uptober" into "Rektember: The Sequel."

So can we survive? According to macro analyst Cem Karsan, the week after Q3 options expiry (which just happened) tends to be rubbish, but markets usually bounce back after. October and November could still deliver.

The key question: Will institutions who've been sitting on the sidelines use this dip to finally get back in?

⚔️ The Battle for Perp DEX Supremacy

While everything else was burning, perpetual DEX platforms decided to start a proper war.

You know that expression "the sword of Damocles"? It comes from an ancient Greek story about a bloke who envied his king's power and luxury. The king invited him to a lavish banquet, sat him on the throne, then revealed a sharp sword hanging by a single horsehair directly above his head.

The message? Power and success come with hidden dangers that could crash down at any moment.

Arthur Hayes' Maelstrom fund just published an article arguing that Hyperliquid – the current king of perp DEXes – now has its own sword of Damocles. Two of them, actually.

Threat #1: The Great Token Unlock

Starting November 29th, Hyperliquid will release 237.8 million HYPE tokens over 24 months. At $50 per token, that's potentially $500 million in sell pressure every single month. Their current buyback mechanism (98% of trading fees) might only absorb 17% of it.

That's a lot of tokens hitting the market. Like opening a fire hydrant when you only need a drinking fountain.

Threat #2: The Challengers Emerge

Last week, a competitor called Aster – backed by Binance founder CZ – actually overtook Hyperliquid in daily trading volume. HYPE bled nearly 30% as a result.

Other challengers are circling too: Avantis, Lighter, edgeX, Reya Network, Pacifica. They're all coming for the crown.

So is Hyperliquid doomed?

Probably not. Here's why:

When you look at the Open Interest to Volume ratios (basically, how much of the trading is real versus wash trading for airdrop farming), Hyperliquid's numbers match centralized exchanges like Binance. Most competitors? Their ratios suggest they're mostly farmers gaming the system.

Plus, Hyperliquid has two major upgrades coming:

• HIP-3: Lets anyone create new perpetual markets (imagine listing stocks, commodities, anything)
• HIP-4: Enables prediction markets on Hyperliquid

They're also launching USDH, their own stablecoin that captures revenue from Treasury yields – half of which funds HYPE buybacks.

Think of it like Solana in the bear market. Everyone declared it dead at $8. Then the "trenches" culture revived it to triple digits.

🎲 The Week Ahead: Survive or Thrive?

Bottom line: Volatility is coming, but maybe not doom.

The crypto market is oversold (at time of writing), which typically means a bounce or relief rally is brewing. But that depends entirely on what happens with:

1. The US dollar (if DXY spikes, crypto dumps)
2. Friday's unemployment numbers
3. Wednesday's potential government shutdown drama

Multiple analysts are betting on institutions finally allocating capital in Q4. Lance Roberts notes that major players are still "offside" – meaning they're underweight in assets and need to catch up.

If the macro cocktail we get this week sends the dollar higher, expect more pain. If it sends the dollar lower? We might finally get our Uptober rally.

As for Hyperliquid, yes there's sell pressure coming. But there's also growing adoption of their EVM chain (which uses HYPE as gas), new markets launching, and a stablecoin that generates buyback revenue.

The sword is hanging. But the feast isn't over yet.

The takeaway?

This is crypto doing what crypto does best – creating drama while everyone tries to figure out if we're at the bottom or halfway down the cliff. September lived up to its terrible reputation. October could redeem the entire quarter, or it could be Rektember Part II: Electric Boogaloo.

Either way, watch that DXY like your portfolio depends on it. Because it does.

What's your prediction – are we heading for Uptober glory or extended misery?