Right, so about that Santa Rally everyone’s been banging on about…

Turns out we’ve been checking our stockings on the wrong day. Like showing up to Christmas dinner on Boxing Day and wondering where everyone’s gone, we’ve been expecting presents before Santa’s even loaded his sleigh.

The actual Santa Rally window? Last five trading days of December, first two of January. Which means you’ve got time to be nice yet—though knowing crypto traders, most of you will probably opt for naughty and hope for the best anyway.

Surprise, surprise.  Bitcoin gained strength on Monday, rising briefly above $90,000, followed by a swift retreat.  Let's see what happens the rest of this week...

When January Actually Starts 📅

Everyone talks about “the new year” like it’s some magical midnight transformation—Cinderella at the ball, pumpkins into carriages, all that rot. Reality’s more mundane. The proper new year for markets begins January 5th, when everyone drags themselves back from holiday, slightly rounder, considerably broker, and ready to make terrible decisions with fresh enthusiasm.

This timing matters because three distinct forces collide:

• **Institutional algorithms** start buying back what they dumped during tax-loss harvesting season 

• **Retail investors** panic-sell because someone on Twitter told them 2026 will be “definitely bearish, trust me bro” 

• **Whales** might just decide to pump prices precisely because everyone expects doom

Here’s the kicker though: well-fed people take fewer risks. All those investors coming back stuffed with Christmas pudding? They might be terrible for crypto volatility. Perhaps we need hungrier traders. (Not financial advice. Or dietary advice.)

**So what?** Don’t make your big moves until mid-January when the real game begins.

The Liquidity Lag Nobody Mentions 💧

**Crypto follows money like a puppy follows sausages—but three months behind.**

Remember November? The Treasury General Account started draining. December? The Fed did its “not QE” QE dance (wink wink, definitely not quantitative easing, honest). These are actual liquidity injections happening right now.

But crypto’s got a three-month delay. Like receiving birthday cards from your aunt in Australia—lovely gesture, terrible timing. Those November liquidity improvements won’t lift crypto until late January at earliest.

Meanwhile, here’s the uncomfortable truth: market liquidity is rising, but economic liquidity is not. Unemployment’s climbing faster than expected. Global deflation’s showing up like an unwanted dinner guest. The economy and markets pretend they’re separate, but they’re more like conjoined twins—what hurts one eventually hurts the other.

**The vulnerability?** Most market returns are coming from a handful of stocks. When everything depends on five companies staying brilliant, one bad headline sends everyone scrambling for the exits.

Venezuela, Oil, and Convenient Timing ⚠️

**January’s when you start fights about oil—ask any strategist.**

You might’ve noticed the US escalating tensions with Venezuela lately. Coincidence? Not remotely. Oil demand hits its lowest point in winter, particularly January. Which makes January the perfect month to pick a fight that might spike oil prices—when it’ll hurt consumers least.

Smart timing, that. Almost impressive, if it weren’t potentially devastating for markets standing on foundations made of digestive biscuits and optimism.

The Trump administration seems market-aware though. If this Venezuela situation starts tanking stocks, expect a rapid de-escalation. Nothing ends foreign policy adventures quite like a falling S&P 500.

The 2026 Predictions Nobody’s Making 🔮

**When the experts go quiet, start paying attention.**

Something fascinating happened in this year’s prediction reports from Coinbase, Galaxy, Grayscale, a16z, Messari, Delphi, and Presto: hardly anyone’s predicting prices anymore.

Last year? Everyone throwing numbers around like confetti at a wedding. This year? Crickets. When they do predict, it’s Bitcoin only—and they’re not exactly bullish about 2026 specifically.

**The new consensus:**

- The four-year cycle might be dead (killed by macro factors and institutional adoption)

- Regulatory clarity (GENIUS and CLARITY Acts) could change everything

- 2027 might be where Bitcoin hits $250K, not 2026

- Privacy coins, prediction markets, and revenue-generating tokens could surprise everyone

But here’s what makes me properly skeptical: most reports are bullish on exactly the narratives that did well in late 2025. ZEC, HYPE, RWA tokenization, AI agents making payments.

Is this wisdom or recency bias wearing a fancy suit?

"Humans overestimate what they can achieve short-term while underestimating long-term growth."

That quote’s worth remembering when someone’s absolutely certain about next month.

The Bottom Line

So where does this leave us?

Santa’s still got presents in his bag, but he’s running on Greenwich Mean Time—which means properly late by American standards. The crypto backdrop looks solid, the economy looks dodgy, and Venezuela might cock up everything if someone gets overeager.

The institutional money’s coming (15+ crypto IPOs predicted, 50+ altcoin ETFs possible), but it’s bringing its boring friends: compliance, privacy requirements, and “Know Your Agent” protocols that make KYC look simple.

Think of 2026 like a British summer: probably disappointing early on, possibly brilliant later, definitely unpredictable, and anyone who claims to know exactly what’s happening is either lying or delusional.

My advice? Watch January 5th closely. Keep one eye on Venezuela. Don’t trust predictions that perfectly match what just happened. And maybe skip that extra helping of Christmas pudding if you want to take proper risks in the new year.

What’s your take—are we heading for a surprise rally or a proper British muddle-through? Hit reply and tell me I’m wrong. I thrive on contradiction.