Bitcoin's worst November since FTX collapsed 👀

Right, so here I am, staring at my portfolio like it's a particularly disappointing school report card. Bitcoin had its worst November since 2022—when FTX went spectacularly belly-up. Ethereum's doing even worse, posting numbers we haven't seen since 2018, back when most people still thought ICOs were a good idea.

The thing that really gets me? This is supposed to be a bull market year. It feels like ordering a full English breakfast at Denny's and getting served cornflakes. Everyone's scrambling to figure out what happens next, myself included. And when everyone's looking at the same charts, drawing the same conclusions, well... that's usually when the market does something absolutely mental in the opposite direction.

Let's unpack this mess, shall we?

📊 The "Everyone Knows" Trap

Here's what the crowd thinks: We're at the start of a bear market, there'll be one more bounce, then it's lower lows from here. 

Naturally, every trader on X is promising themselves (and anyone who'll listen) they'll exit during this rally. Which is brilliant, except for one small problem—the market has this delightful habit of doing exactly what nobody expects.

Consider this: If prices go up from here, more traders get liquidated than if prices go down. I know, sounds backwards, doesn't it? But the liquidation heat maps don't lie. More positions are set to blow up on the way up than on the way down. It's like everyone's leaning so far one direction that a gentle breeze the other way sends them tumbling.

Now, here's where it gets proper interesting. These indicators? They can be faked. It's called "spoofing," and it's about as common in crypto as overpriced coffee in London. So if you can't trust the liquidation maps, what can you trust?

What the smart money's actually doing (not just saying). 

🔍 Reading the Tea Leaves (But Make It Monad)

Follow the money, not the mouths. 

Monad just raised over $400 million from crypto's biggest players. They then waited until last week to list their MON token. Coincidence? Or did they just time the "worst November since 2022" for their launch? (Spoiler: Probably not a coincidence.)

Meanwhile, Coinbase is dropping hints about December developments like they're breadcrumbs in a particularly complex treasure hunt. Exchanges don't launch major products when markets are circling the drain—they launch when things are looking up. Though, to be fair, I've seen this play before at the start of bear markets too. So there's that.

But wait, there's more! December's bringing:

• The Fed potentially ending QT and cutting rates
• Possible Ukraine war resolution (let's hope so)
• Trump's tariffs potentially struck down by Supreme Court

Sounds bullish, yeah? Except there's also the small matter of potential US operations in Venezuela (which Trump keeps hinting about). Nothing says "stable markets" quite like geopolitical uncertainty.

The verdict? December's going to be volatile as hell. The only question is which direction the chaos flows. 

🔬 The Monad Situation (Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Low Float)

Monad's airdrop wasn't Hyperliquid 2.0, but something interesting happened anyway. 

The numbers tell the story: 3.33% supply airdropped (versus HYPE's 31%), $105M total value (versus HYPE's ~$1B), average claim of $1,380 per wallet. Not exactly life-changing money for most people. About 60% of recipients sold immediately, which tracks. What's fascinating? The other 30% haven't sold a single token.

Then the price did this proper rollercoaster thing—dipped below ICO price, then rocketed nearly 130% to almost $0.05 within 48 hours. How? Two words: low float magic.

Only 10% of MON's total supply is circulating. Market cap: $400M. FDV: $4B. This creates what I call the "undervalued illusion"—it looks cheap compared to other Layer 1s, even though the fully diluted valuation tells a different story. Add in the fact that most ICO participants have zero incentive to sell (next unlock is a year away), and you've got a recipe for short-term price resilience.

But here's the kicker: Nearly 70% of circulating MON comes from the Coinbase ICO. And nobody wants to risk losing allocation for a potential BASE token sale by dumping MON now. Clever, that.

The ecosystem stats? TVL doubled from $73M to $150M in week one. Daily active addresses hit 120,000. Transactions: 3 million per day. Not too shabby.

The memecoins, though? Absolute carnage. Molandak, Chog, Salmonaad, Mouch—they all did parabolic moves then crashed harder than my optimism in 2022. Only one Monad meme is still above $1M market cap. The mercenary traders came, farmed the hype, and 85% of bridged funds have already left for other chains.

The Bottom Line (In Proper English)

What we do know: Crypto's oversold short-term, big players are positioning for December, and volatility's coming whether we like it or not. Monad's done a decent job out the gate, but surviving the next bear market (if that's what this is) requires more than clever tokenomics and low float tricks.

My prediction? December brings chaos in both directions—proper whipsaw action that liquidates the overconfident on both sides. The market's like a particularly vindictive British bus driver: it'll leave without you if you're not paying attention, and it absolutely will not go where you expect.

So what should you do? Honestly? Stop trying to outsmart everyone else. Watch what the big money's doing, not saying. Keep some dry powder available. And maybe, just maybe, accept that nobody—including me, the exchanges, or that bloke on Twitter with the laser eyes—actually knows what happens next.

Regards,

Your Slightly Cynical Crypto Observer 

Andrew
CryptoSecretsLab.com

P.S. — If you're still holding MON and feeling clever, remember: the next major unlock isn't for a year. That's either plenty of time to ride the momentum program rewards, or plenty of time to regret not taking profits at $0.05. Time, as they say, will tell.